This article is written by Austin Garcia
The global shipping industry faces a unique challenge from the shadow fleet, a large, unregulated group of tankers. This fleet’s rapid growth has been driven by the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, creating significant economic and environmental concerns.
The Rise of the Shadow Fleet
The shadow fleet, also known as the Grey Tanker Fleet, has seen an unprecedented 17% growth this year. It now consists of 787 units, which accounts for 8.5% of the total tanker capacity and 13.7% of global tonnage. The fleet’s expansion is a direct result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as Russia has adapted its shipping to maintain oil and gas revenues amid international sanctions.
Economic and Environmental Risks
The sheer size of this unregulated fleet poses a dual threat to the global community.
- Economic Shockwave: Brokerage firm BRS warns that abruptly excluding the shadow fleet from the market could trigger a major economic shockwave. BRS advocates for a gradual and targeted approach to regulation to prevent market volatility.
- Environmental Disaster: Baltic littoral states, led by Sweden, are pushing for a more aggressive crackdown. Their concerns stem from the fact that many of the aging tankers have had several near-misses, and their lack of regulation increases the risk of a catastrophic environmental disaster.
The Role of Friendshoring
The growth of the shadow fleet also highlights the need for friendshoring. This practice involves businesses restructuring their supply chains to shift production away from geopolitical rivals and toward allied nations. The text suggests that Mexico, due to its lack of geopolitical rivals, is a strong candidate for friendshoring efforts. This strategic shift aims to create more secure and stable supply chains in an era of heightened global uncertainty.
