While most Fridays bring routine updates to trade schedules, this coming Friday, January 9, 2026, marks a potential watershed moment for the U.S. economy and the limits of executive power. The Supreme Court is expected to issue a landmark ruling that could either dismantle or uphold President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs—the cornerstone of his second-term economic agenda. At the heart of the case is whether a president can use 1970s-era emergency laws to bypass Congress and reshape global trade overnight, a decision that will determine the fate of billions in tax revenue and the future of presidential authority.
Trade, Customs & Supply-Chain Impact
The biggest issue at stake is the U.S. Supreme Court deciding whether broad tariffs were lawfully imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This has been a huge issue with both opposing sides having valid points in these tariffs. Moreover, the outcome may change the way on how easily future presidents can impose emergency-based tariffs.
If the court limits or strikes down the IEEPA tariffs we would see big changes coming to trade, customs, and the supply-chain.
Trade impact
- Emergency-based tariffs become harder to justify.
- Tariffs likely rely more on Section 232 (national security), Section 301 (trade practices), or congressional action.
Customs impact
- Possible increased refund claims, protests, and litigation for affected entries (fact pattern dependent).
- More emphasis on ensuring entries cite the correct legal authority and are supported by documentation.
Supply-chain impact
- Better medium-term predictability for sourcing and landed-cost planning.
- Lower risk of sudden, disruptive cost shocks.
However, if the courts were to uphold broad emergency tariff authority, the impact would be just as major.
Trade impact
- The executive branch retains faster emergency tariff tools.
- Higher likelihood of rapid changes with limited lead time.
Customs impact
- Greater exposure to misclassification and duty-calculation errors during rapid tariff changes.
- More post-entry activity (PSCs, protests) and higher audit readiness expectations.
Supply-chain impact
- Higher volatility in land cost and supplier pricing.
- More frequent pressure to re-source, re-route, or redesign products to manage tariff exposure.
Risk Matrix – Importers and Manufacturers
The current tariff environment creates a “perfect storm” of risks for businesses, starting with the very high chance of sudden price hikes that can happen almost overnight through emergency government powers. These rapid changes often break existing contracts, turning profitable deals into losses because the cost of goods rises faster than prices can be adjusted. Beyond the direct costs, the constant shifting of rules makes it easy for companies to make expensive filing mistakes, which invites intense government audits and aggressive enforcement. To survive this, businesses are being forced to tie up more cash to pay duties and may even have to move their entire supply chains to different countries just to keep costs predictable.
Practical Mitigation Solutions
To protect your business from tariff volatility, you should focus on three main areas: smart planning, legal savings, and contract updates. First, you can lower costs through “tariff engineering,” which means carefully reviewing how your products are classified to find lower tax rates—and by using government programs like Foreign-Trade Zones or Duty Drawbacks to get your money back. For those operating across the border, leveraging the IMMEX program is essential to defer or waive import duties on raw materials, providing a critical buffer against sudden policy shifts. Second, it is vital to update your contracts with “tariff escalation” clauses so that if taxes go up suddenly, you aren’t stuck paying the entire bill yourself.
Finally, you need to prepare for different “what-if” scenarios. This involves keeping detailed records to pass government audits and creating three different budget models: one for no tariffs, one for specific targets, and one for a total trade war. By diversifying where you source your products and having a clear plan for when to switch suppliers, you can keep your supply chain moving even when trade laws change.
The Bottom Line
This upcoming ruling is a major “fork in the road” for American trade. It will decide if a president can change taxes on imports instantly by calling them an “emergency,” or if that power must stay with Congress. Because the decision could come as early as this Friday, companies need to move from “watching” to “acting.” By setting up clear cost models, double-checking that paperwork is perfect to avoid government audits, and having a “Plan B” for suppliers, businesses can stay stable even if the rules change overnight.
Why TradeFlex?
Strategic decision-making and collaboration are crucial for navigating these challenges and ensuring growth and success in the globalized supply chain. With careful management and informed policy decisions, there are opportunities for growth and success in the complex landscape of global manufacturing.
Here at TradeFlex, we can guide and help overcome the possible issues that may arise in the future and provide a long-lasting partnership that will help overcome any obstacle. With our El Paso and Valley locations, we deliver the best dedicated and reliant teams no matter your location. We are always ready to share a helping hand. Visit us at https://trade-flex.com/ for more details.
